Nitish Kumar's JDU: Navigating Bihar's Caste Dynamics Ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha Polls

The voting patterns for Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JDU] can be analyzed by looking at the caste composition of Bihar and the historical support base of the JDU. Here are key points based on the data available:

1. Caste Composition in Bihar: The 2011 national census indicated that Scheduled Castes constituted 16% of Bihar’s population. The Mahadalit community, a subset of Dalits, includes various sub-castes like Chamars, Paswans, and Musahars. OBCs/EBCs (Other Backward Classes/Extremely Backward Classes) make up about 51% of the population, with significant groups like Yadavs and Kushwahas. Forward castes, including Bhumihars, Brahmins, Rajputs, and Kayasths, constitute around 15% of the population. Muslims form 16.9% of the state’s population.
2. JDU’s Traditional Support Base: Historically, Nitish Kumar and the JDU have enjoyed substantial support from the EBCs and a portion of the Dalit community, particularly the Mahadalits. His government’s policies, such as reservations in government contracts and inclusion of more castes in the EBC category, have been aimed at consolidating this support.
3. Electoral Implications: JDU’s traditional support base, combined with the significant EBC and Mahadalit population in Bihar, has been a crucial factor in its electoral success. However, political dynamics in Bihar are complex, and caste-based voting is intertwined with party alliances and the popularity of leaders.
4. Impact of Alliances: Nitish Kumar’s political alignments, whether with the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan, affect his party’s electoral prospects. His ability to attract votes from his traditional support base can be influenced by these alliances, as they can bring in additional support from other caste groups aligned with alliance partners.
5. Current Scenario: With talks of Nitish Kumar potentially switching alliances, there could be a reshuffling of caste-based support. His move to the NDA could potentially consolidate support from certain OBC and forward caste groups, in addition to his traditional EBC and Mahadalit base.
6. Uncertainty and Speculation: The current political situation in Bihar, especially with the potential switch of alliances, adds an element of uncertainty. Voter behavior could change depending on the final political alignment and the campaign strategies adopted by the parties involved.

In conclusion, Nitish Kumar’s JDU has traditionally relied on the support of EBCs and Mahadalits. The party’s success in future elections, particularly the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, would depend on how these caste groups, along with others, respond to the party’s policies and alliances​