India 2024 Elections: Who would win ?

The latest opinion polls, including the Mood of the Nation survey by India Today, predict a comfortable victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with a projected win of 335 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 general elections. This forecast suggests a slight decrease from the 2019 elections but still ensures a majority. The survey, involving interviews with over 149,000 respondents, reflects Modi’s enduring popularity based on his nationalist policies and economic reforms. Other polls echo these findings, although seat projections vary slightly. The opposition INDIA alliance is expected to secure a significant number of seats, yet not enough to challenge the NDA’s majority. These predictions highlight a political landscape that remains largely favorable to Modi and the BJP as the election approaches

The Uttarakhand government, under the leadership of Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami, introduced the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) Bill 2024 in the state Assembly, marking a significant move towards legal uniformity across different personal laws. The bill aims to establish a common set of civil laws for all citizens, regardless of their religion, focusing on key areas such as marriage, divorce, inheritance, and property rights. Major provisions include a ban on polygamy and child marriage, equal property rights for sons and daughters, compulsory registration of marriages and divorces, and penalties for practices like triple talaq. This initiative, which aligns with the BJP’s national agenda, is seen as a step towards fulfilling a major promise made in the party’s 2022 assembly election manifesto and could set a precedent for other states in India

Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, resigned from his post and ended his alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), marking a significant shift in the state’s political dynamics. He is set to form a new government in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This move has major implications for Bihar’s political landscape, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Political parties are expected to recalibrate their strategies in response to this realignment. The new coalition might lead to a change in voter loyalties, campaign strategies, and electoral calculations, potentially influencing both regional and national politics

The electoral base of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JDU] in Bihar is intricately linked to the state’s caste composition. The JDU historically garners significant support from the EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) and Mahadalits, a subset of the Dalit community. Bihar’s demographic profile includes 16% Scheduled Castes, 51% OBCs/EBCs, 15% forward castes, and 16.9% Muslims. Kumar’s governance and policies, notably reservations in government contracts and expanded EBC categorization, aim to consolidate his traditional support base. However, the JDU’s success in upcoming elections, especially the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, will heavily depend on the party’s alliances and ability to attract votes from various caste groups. With current speculations about Kumar’s potential switch to the NDA, there’s a possibility of a shift in the JDU’s voter base, making the party’s approach to caste-based support and political alliances crucial for its performance in the 2024 elections.

The year 2024 has been marked by a series of pivotal elections worldwide, each carrying significant implications for international relations, economic policies, and strategic alignments. In the United States, the presidential election could redefine U.S.-China relations and impact global markets and geopolitical stability. Taiwan’s election, crucial for cross-Strait dynamics and semiconductor industry considerations, has highlighted the island’s strategic importance. Elections in India and Pakistan are set to influence regional stability in the Indo-Pacific, affecting relationships with major powers like the U.S. and China. Africa’s elections, particularly in South Africa and Senegal, play a key role in the continent’s peacekeeping and economic integration, with global powers vying for influence. Protests expected in Belarus, Russia, and Iran around their elections could destabilize governments and strain international relations. Overall, the 2024 elections are reshaping the global geopolitical landscape, influencing economic policies, strategic alignments, and regional stability.