The latest predictions for the 2024 India elections, as of February 2024, suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are likely to secure a clear majority in the upcoming general elections. According to a survey conducted by India Today’s Mood of the Nation Poll, the NDA is projected to win 335 of the 543 directly elected seats in the Lok Sabha, which would ensure Modi’s return for a record third term. This represents a slight decrease from the more than 350 seats the alliance won in the 2019 elections, although it still constitutes a comfortable majority.
The methodology of the Mood of the Nation poll, carried out by CVoter between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024, involved interviewing 35,801 respondents across all Lok Sabha segments in every state, supplemented by analysis of 113,081 interviews from CVoter’s regular tracker data. The combined opinion of 149,092 respondents was considered for the report, with a margin of error of +/- 3% at the macro level and +/- 5% at the micro level, ensuring a comprehensive and statistically significant snapshot of the electorate’s mood.
Furthermore, according to other polls compiled by Political Pulse, projections for the NDA range from 295 to over 335 seats, with variations depending on the pollster. The opposition INDIA alliance, consisting of the Congress party and over two dozen regional parties, is expected to secure around 166 to 205 seats, depending on the source. These polls highlight the BJP’s strong position in several key states while also reflecting competitive dynamics in others, such as Karnataka, where an alliance between the BJP and JD(S) has been confirmed for the Lok Sabha election.
These predictions underscore the continued popularity of Modi and the BJP, driven by their nationalist messaging, economic policies, and infrastructure development initiatives, despite facing criticism on various fronts. However, it’s important to note that polls and surveys can have varying degrees of accuracy, and the political landscape can change significantly leading up to the elections.
