HDFC Bank Shares Experience Notable Decline Despite Strong Q3 Profit Growth in 2024

Before Market Opens
23 January, 2024
  • Performance Overview: Despite reporting better-than-expected Q3 profits, HDFC Bank’s shares experienced a sharp decline in early 2024. This drop was surprising given the bank’s strong financial results.
  • Analyst Concerns:
    • Nuvama Institutional Equities: Downgraded HDFC Bank due to concerns over liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), deposit growth, and loan growth, leading to a 5-6% cut in earnings for FY25E-FY26E.
    • Phillip Capital: Highlighted liquidity challenges affecting deposit mobilization and suggested a target price of ₹1,920.
    • Motilal Oswal: Noted that margins remained largely flat, slightly below expectations, with a target price of ₹1,950.
    • Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities: Remained positive on HDFC Bank in the long term, maintaining a buy rating with a target price of ₹1,994.
    • Kotak Institutional Equities: Maintained a ‘buy’ rating but raised concerns about the sustainability of operating profit growth drivers.
  • Provision Impact: A significant contingency provision towards an Alternate Investment Fund (AIF) of ₹1,200 crore impacted the results, despite being 5% higher than the carrying value.
  • Future Outlook: HDFC Bank’s future outlook appears promising with anticipated earnings growth of 17% and revenue growth of 14% per annum over the next five years. The bank is expected to focus on digital transformation, asset quality maintenance, and market expansion.
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