National Infrastructure Pipeline Report was released by Finance Minister on 31st December’19. Government plan is Rs 102 lakh crore investment in 6 years.Let us look at it more closely.
There is some data provided in NIP report. We have to see the past data and projected investments together. Investments grew at 18.87, 11.11, 21.43, 8.24, 10.87 (%) in FY13 to 18. It fell 1.96 % in FY19.
Now let us look at the plan. Investments to grow at 36.00, 43.38, -2.56, -27.37, -7.25, -13.28 (%) in FY20 to FY25. Data for 12.21 lakh crore is not provided ( no phasing ).
Instead of the plan, If investment grew at 10% every year from FY19, then total investment from FY20-25 would be 95 lakh cr, and if it grew at 14 % ( CAGR from FY13-18), it would be 113 lakh crore. Government plan is Rs 102 lakh crore in 6 years.
According to the report, out of the total expected capital expenditure of Rs. 102 lakh crore, projects worth Rs 42.7 lakh crore (42%) are under implementation, projects worth Rs 32.7 lakh crore (32%) are in conceptualization stage and rest are under development.
Vision 2025 for Power (in the NIP Report): Total capacity: 619 GW: Thermal: 50%, renewable : 39%, hydro : 9%, nuclear :2% ; Substantial increase in per capita electricity consumption to 1,616 kWh; Renewable energy’s share in consumption to increase to ~19%
CEA NEP plan released in Jan’18: Installed capacity by Mar’2027: Total: 619 GW – Hydro 63 GW (10.2 %), Coal + Lignite 238 GW (38.5%), Gas 25 GW (4.2%), Nuclear 16.9GW (2.7%), Total Conventional Capacity 344 GW (55.6%) , Total Renewable Capacity 275 GW (44.4%)
I can match only the 619 GW figure.
Numbers are given in the report. India nominal GDP would grow at 8, 10.5, 12, 12.6, 12.86, 13.1 % in FY 20 to FY 25 to reach 365.49 lakh crore in FY25 that is 5 trillion dollar at current exchange rate.
1. NIP : https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1598055
2. CEA NEP: http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/committee/nep/nep_jan_2018.pdf
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