Bankers Grapple with Inflation in Jackson Hole

Central Bankers Grapple with Inflation Challenge Amid Uncertain Economic Landscape

• The Federal Reserve’s annual gathering is hosted by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
• The federal funds rate has crested above 5 percent.
• Unemployment remains near 50-year lows.
• Fed offi­cials’ own estim­ates of the neut­ral rate — also called R-star
• The neutral rate of interest (R-star) is estimated around 2.5 percent.
• The median forecast for R-star is around 2.5 percent, adjusted for inflation at 2 percent.
• Some believe a soft landing, where inflation comes down without a recession, is possible.
• Others are more skeptical, with predictions of a “hardish” landing that could lift the unemployment rate to at least 5 percent.